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New Idea for Conference Realignment -Non-barf worthy but long

4,202 Views | 27 Replies | Last: 7 yr ago by mpaggie06
TrueAgg13
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AG
We were talking about this on our radio show yesterday and after about 30 seconds, we realized that now is the perfect time for the SEC, B1G and even PAC 12 to add the last of the big players to their conferences. Here was what we were thinking....

We all know that the Big 12 is desperate and because of Texas' network (loosely), they are in risk of falling apart. Texas isn't going to give up their network and they would be extremely successful as an independent. We can't deny that. So why doesn't the rest of the Power 5 strip the Big 12 and reduce to a Power 4? I think we can all agree that no one is going to land a true home run because all the big dogs are pretty much taken or their respective market is covered (outside of Oklahoma). So the B1G comes in and gets say Oklahoma and OSU, the SEC gets Tech and TCU, and the PAC 12 gets Baylor and some other team (obviously that is not a sexy option so maybe they get nothing). It just seems to make sense.

Now, could you take this and turn the Power 4 into the Playoff bracket?
Dirty-8-thirty Ag
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tech & purple baylor bring nothing to the table, TV revenue wise. Also, their fan bases are too small. Those are regional schools that not many people go to if they aren't from that area.

As stated previously on several other threads, the conference will expand its borders by grabbing a team out of North Carolina and Virginia.
Bifferton Bobber Squat
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AG


OlArmyWalton92
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I threw up a little in my month.
bigblackag12
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I award your non barf worthy post 2 barfs.
Rocco S
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tu would be extremely successful as an independent? Why? They have their own network and it has been a failure.

What do Tech and TCU offer to the SEC? There is less than zero chance they'd be voted into the SEC.
ntxVol
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I don't think the SEC is interested in expanding at the moment. The only way to change that would be for someone like Virginia Tech or N. Carolina to knock on the door. All this talk is just that. There is no way the SEC is going to take some conference's leftovers. The conference will stand pat at 14 rather than do something that may weaken it in any way.

JMO.
greg.w.h
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The Big 12(-2-2+1+1) is alive through sheer willpower of ESPN and Fox. ESPN undoubtedly is protecting its bowl broadcast oligarchy in December but also might be holding in place the last conference that prevents the P4 Football League from forming with 64 teams instead of the NFL's 32.

That superconference would be able to dictate terms via ownership of a captive playoff system within just those teams or perhaps conference championships -> a six-team playoff that includes two non-P4/independents that join the 3 and 4 seeds for two elimination games two weeks prior to the Jan 1 games.

Nothing has to change other than completing the current CFP contract that includes the B12 and has provisions for including independents and Group of 5. But there are piece parts that would accelerate to this kind of system:

1. Eliminate the Dec 31 CFP games when the Rose Bowl isn't hosting a CFP game.

2. Get Notre Dame's football program into the ACC (this is dependent on ESPN v NBC regarding the Notre Dame Broadcasting Company's OTA broadcasts of home ND football games.

3. Resolve Texas' quasi-independent status via affiliation either with the new CFP or more likely by joining either the ACC, B1G, or Pac-12 moving towards 16 games. (OU and Texas to the SEC seems highly unlikely but isn't impossible.)

The B12 adding four teams is a strategic play to elevate four teams to a competitive level equivalent not to Iowa State or KU but to raise the floor by leveraging the better payout that P5 teams can provide. Revenue would be traded for specific, quantifiable investment either provided by the school of lent by the conference. If a P4 team wanted to move conference (and were unrestrained from doing so) presumably they would share more revenue sooner especially if from a high population state (the states with most electors are good proxies for this.)

But most likely the B12 post-expansion smells more like the American (I.e. Old BE football schools) or the WAC 16-team mess before the Mountain West teams left.

The most interesting question is whether grants of rights work or not. They are the only form of meaningful stability if a move towards consolidation continues. The B12 situation is anti-consolidation and probably includes and extension of the GoR concurrent with Fox and ESPN offering more. It almost certainly also requires either a Fox or ESPN commitment to a conference network (with ESPN converting the existing LHN as the easiest-to-imagine accommodation.)

But with cable cutting the money doesn't appear to be there and ESPN especially seems intent on lowering expenses to ride it out. They have NOT announced and over-the-top offering (though they have allowed Dish and Sony to do Internet-only delivery of cable bundles...of which Sling by Dish is currently limited to 3 million subscribers and was under 1.5 million last time I checked.)
King O Frod
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quote:
It just seems to make sense.

are you feeling ok?
Kemo Sabe
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The SEC is not going to come get Tech and TCU. That is just not going to happen. Expansion for the SEC is now a closed window with the GOR extended by all the ACC schools.

OU's problem is that they have this little appendage hanging out their butt known as OSU. They go together or not at all. There by reducing their chances of moving to somewhere around nil and none. Texas has the 3 dwarves (TCU, Baylor, Tech) they will have to satisfy financially if they bolt to another conference or go independent. If they add UH to the Big12 they will have 4. Those 4 are not going to let the sips sneak off in the middle of the night. They will sue their collective pants off for monetary damages if the sips leave and they all have to drop down to conference USA or worse. This is the price the sips pay for their own little fiefdom of an athletic conference. But then they had to have them to rule the Big12. These four are not going to just go away. So needless to say the best the Big12 can do is to bring Cincy and Memphis into the fold as full members along with maybe BYU for football and most probably Tulane to balance out the divisions. It's a tough spot to be in but they had a death grip on the LHN channel and let the college football world change around them, leaving them with very few options.
Stinky T
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It is amazing that after all of the changes in conferences over the past few years, some people still do not understand what the real underlying drivers of change really are.
Capt. America
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Money and TV sets y'all.
Stinky T
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Exactly! It will never, ever be about finding a home for all of the wayward refugees in the Big XII.
Sixers_Fan
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I want to see Texas go independent purely for the enjoyment of watching them crash and burn. They've had these resources that we're starting to acquire for as long as I can remember and 1 championship in the last 30+ years to show for it. People who argue that we do the least with what we have fail to see through the mirage that those sorry excuses for fans try to paint for the rest of the country.
eeinhouston
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Zombie Jon Snow
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If something makes perfect sense (4x16 superconference) you cn be assured they won't do it.


However...I do think the Pac-12 is going to beat the Big 12 to the punch on BYU and Boise St.

They will go to 14 like the SEC, B10(14) and ACC(+ND).

That'll leave the Big12 unable to expand west - i mean nobody really wants UNLV, SDSU, Wyoming, NM schools, AF, CSU, Fresno, etc.

The Big12 is gonna have to react and go to 14 also - Cincy, UConn, USF, and ECU make the most sense (or Memphis or Houston instead of UConn).


njohn87
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Almost everything in this thread is unfounded or wrong, but the wrongest thing is that the PAC-12 would ever invite BYU under any circumstance.
njohn87
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I think it's also worth noting that when the cable bubble inevitably collapses some time in the next decade, the arithmetic of conference alignment is going to change substantially. I can't say for sure how, but it's going to be different. My guess is that conferences are going to have streaming services to sell, and because of that the relative sizes of the fanbases (the people who actually watch the games) and the overall quality of the games is going to once again matter more than TV footprints.
greg.w.h
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quote:
Almost everything in this thread is unfounded or wrong, but the wrongest thing is that the PAC-12 would ever invite BYU under any circumstance.


The real question is who is next to last: Baylor or BYU...
njohn87
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quote:
quote:
Almost everything in this thread is unfounded or wrong, but the wrongest thing is that the PAC-12 would ever invite BYU under any circumstance.


The real question is who is next to last: Baylor or BYU...
Baylor didn't campaign for Prop 8
corybantic
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Regarding independence: People only care about tu in Texas and perhaps somewhat in Methland (hatred-wise) whereas the Domers have Catholics without any college affiliation all over the US. If tu is good who is going to schedule them outside of Texas schools. If tu sucks then nobody cares and won't schedule them. You've been listening to Texas media which is an extension of Belmont.

They are the "Greatest Brand in College Sports" is a self-reinforcing circle-jerk idea they keep telling themselves and anybody who lives in Texas has to endlessly hear their arrogant delusions. You've obviously listened too much and their sheit has stuck to your wall. In 20 years half their actual alumni will have moved back to China or India and be watching cricket or ping-pong.

"What We Do Changes the World" is another self fellatiating memes they believe. I would recommend that you try living in another state for a period of time to see what nothings they are outside of their media bubble.

Sorry for the rant but your post (OP) was dumb.

Sock Puppet
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Ag4coal
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quote:



Seriously. TCU and Tech? Wtf is wrong with you?
busmasterjones91
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SEC and the PAC are happy with their cards. Big 10+2 is okay. Big 12-2-2+2 will scrap together something that looks very much like the old Metro conference. It was a bunch of teams with not a lot in common that ended up going their own ways.

There is very little momentum for change other than the Big 12-2-2+2 realizing that they are so behind the curve that they need to do something -- anything -- to try to boost their stock.
Agsuffering@bulaw
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Answer to OP: The status quo favors the SEC. There is no need to risk upsetting the order.

Details:

The SEC and B1G will continue to make far more money than any of the other conferences. B1G = rust-belt = stagnated economically and sees little population growth. The recruiting talent in the B1G sux, other than the state of Ohio. It is so bad that Michigan and others have started hosting satellite camps in SEC country.

The SEC on the other hand has incredible high school talent. The economies are strong and populations are growing.

The SEC has the best product hands-down, and should continue to have it for the foreseeable future.

We are set up for long term success, relative to other college programs.
Justin2010
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quote:
I think it's also worth noting that when the cable bubble inevitably collapses some time in the next decade, the arithmetic of conference alignment is going to change substantially. I can't say for sure how, but it's going to be different. My guess is that conferences are going to have streaming services to sell, and because of that the relative sizes of the fanbases (the people who actually watch the games) and the overall quality of the games is going to once again matter more than TV footprints.


Bingo. Number of tV sets are going to be increasingly irrelevant.

Football match-up quality and size of the fam baseso are going to be the most important factors.

Im willing to bet espn is already factoring this into their strategies.
Miles711
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Tech and purple Baylor?

Esprit de Corps
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OP, your cred loss in the discussion of realignment is absolutely off the charts
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mpaggie06
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Good thing I don't listen to your radio show.
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