11-1 = 5% (Bama)
10-2 = 10% (Bama and one of Arkansas or Ole Miss)
9-3 = 55% (Bama, Arkansas, and one of Tenn, Ole Miss, or Auburn)
8-4 = 25% (Bama, Arkansas, and two of Tenn, Ole Miss, or Auburn)
7-5 = 5% (think this is really low, just can't see us losing all five)
The above of course is baring major injuries (i.e. Trevor Knight, Mack, Garrett, etc.).
I think we win UCLA. Not sure why some are thinking loss. Of course, we
could lose it. But we should be favored at home against a team that is inconsistent. 8-5 last year with losses you wouldn't have expected them to lose if they were "on the rise" (NU, ASU - who we beat, WSU, a down USCw).
My feeling on Arkansas may be irrational. I haven't studied who they have coming back, etc. But simply, two lucky OT wins in two years and the fact they seem to simply be getting better each year with narrow losses makes me think law of averages gives it to them this year. I'm pretty sure they'll have this game "circled", Bielema knows it's a monkey he needs to get off his back.
Ole Miss is on the road and they have Kelly coming back. If Kelly wasn't coming back, I think we should be favored - Kelly just wills plays it seems.
To be honest, not entirely sure about Tennessee. Haven't drawn up the Xs and Os to see how we match up. But they do seem to be an improving team, with 4 narrow losses last year to good teams. My guess is we should be favored at home. (I know... queue the doomsayers about our home record recently, but I think Chavis has our D going in the right direction and we won't have QB drama with Knight, by all accounts).
I think Auburn has a little more skiddishness in it. Will be a good team, but not quite sure they're better than an Arkansas, Tenn or Ole Miss this year. I like our chances better since we play them early in the season. They will have played Clemson at home (at Auburn) and we will have played UCLA at home. So both of us will be tested. But I think Sumlin has proven he can get players ready to play on the road and I like our players for it. It won't be easy, just am favoring us at this WAY early point.
If pinned down, I'd say 9-3 with losses to Bama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss. Likely win the bowl, but who the hell knows until you know who you're playing...