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23,562 Views | 183 Replies | Last: 8 yr ago by ag2003
AggdadIraq
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quote:
Yea, at this very moment with oil at a 13 yr low it's not great but within yr it will be great again.


Anyone who thinks the price of oil is heading up is sorely mistaken. Supply is outstripping demand by a good margin, and it goes way beyond Saudi Arabia's gambit to knock the bottom out of US shale. The real issue is debt. A majority of oil producers literally can't afford to reduce production because the first dollars have to go to service debt. Therefore, supply will continue to exceed demand. Therefore, the price will remain low until the debt is retired, or unless there's a dramatic increase in demand (which won't happen because China is at the beginning of a slow down.)

So, if you're a person, or an institution that might be counting on oil revenues, you should start to make alternative plans. Else, you need to involve yourself in an array of derivatives and options on futures that allow you to short out of your current interests.
ag2003
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AG
Yea, that's fair, won't be great again in a yr and prob won't ever get back to $100 oil, but it will be improved.

Red Skye,
I honestly can't tell if you are just screwing with people or if you really believe all the crap coming out of your keyboard. Yes, people not born into money generally have to work harder for a good to great loving, but why are you grouping all minorities into that group-----just as many whites come from nothing.....

Also, the gender inequality is grossly overstated. Are there some institutions that might pay differently, yea, but the vast majority don't pay differently and the reason for differences is legitimate, her are just a few-----many women choose to take a 5-20 yr sabbatical to raise kids----that's a great thing but should that woman make the same when they come back as the men or other women who were working for those 5-20 yrs? believe it or not, not all people choose to continue moving up in an organization to CEO----everyone reaches their limit at some point be it a contributor, manager, director, vp, etc. women, more often than men, choose to reach their top responsibility earlier...it's a personal choice. Also in many families, many women are the ones that the family chooses to leave earlier to pick up kids----leaving at 4 everyday, man or woman, will limit your career opportunities. There are tons of reasons why a black and white measurement of wages between men and women are different, but if you use logic and real life reasoning it makes sense. I work in HR and have never seen a woman who has made the decision to continue moving up and has the ability be paid less than their male counterparts....in fact, if anything, they get paid more due to affirmative action requirements and companies being sensitive to the media making this a big deal----many women actually get promos over more deserving men. It works both ways. But I'm sorry, the vast Corp America is not treating women differently, it's often women that choose a different career path....and that pisses off feminists and socialists, but we live in a country that lets women make their own decisions----pretty amazing huh?
AggdadIraq
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quote:
Yea, that's fair, won't be great again in a yr and prob won't ever get back to $100 oil, but it will be improved.


On what data are you basing the assumption it will be improved? If you look at the analytics WTI is more likely to trade at $20bbl than $50bbl. The bubble on oil burst.

Wrt your other statements about racial and gender equality, a lot of your work there is trending toward Formal Fallacy, and I'll leave it at that.
ag2003
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AG
That's your opinion and there is just as much research to suggest it's just as likely to go to $50. The Saudis have had to take unprecedented action bc they never intended for it to drop this low.....companies will soon go bankrupt in the US and that will actually help things and get us more to an equilibrium. I think within 1-2 yrs we will be at about $50, but I agree the interim will be tough.

So there aren't a huge number of poor white people and no minirities are wealthy?

Explain the gender fallacy? I was a HR consultant that saw inside 50+ companies over a 10 yr period and now work inside a fortune 150 company and I've never seen any company differentiate between men and women in terms of pay. if anything I've seen women get promotions and raises at the expense of men.....but let's keep spewing BS that all companies rip women off...of course there are crappy people and companies out there that do it, but it's not some massive effort by Corp America to keep the woman down like some of you feminists claim----it's the opposite
AggdadIraq
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I said it's a Formal Fallacy. Meaning you made a big ol' deductive argument, and Most of your premises can be debunked with minimal effort. Just pointing it out. I don't really care either way.
ag2003
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AG
If it's such minimal effort, please explain? Which premises can be debunked? I'm genuine in my interest to understand
AggdadIraq
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Also, you're completely misreading the actions of the Saudis. If you are correct, then the response to their actions, on the part of non-OPEC producers would be to reduce production and cede market share. In fact, in the intervening time, all production has gone up, in particular so has US shale. Also, 96% of the oil currently produced can be profitable at $30bbl. So, its not market share. Its debt. The Saudis and everyone else are pumping oil like crazy because they can't afford not to. That's the condition of the market now. Chinese growth inflated the bubble, debt sustained it, now the bill is due. No $50bbl oil. More than likely never again either.
AggdadIraq
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Here you go:
http://bfy.tw/4Gjf
ag2003
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AG
We all expected production to increase in the short term in US as companies do all they can to pay debt vs do what's best for the macro environment, but now it's so low even with increased production they will be defaulting. Saudis were hoping bankruptcies would have been quicker but hedges have prolonged the slow down. It will start happening quickly in the next 6 months or so and bid ask spreads will finally start to come in line and the big dogs will get assets for pennies on the dollar. They will be able to pull back production easier than the smaller companies. But who knows, if either you are I truly knew, we wouldn't be wasting a Monday in Texags as we would be jet setting the world spending our billions
ag2003
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AG
Oh, ok, well real life and logical reasoning will debunk any feminist BS that will come up in Google search. So do you believe all the crap you read on the Internet? Really? You seemed better than that.

Regardless you said my premises could be debunked easily....just asking for the quick response of how I'm off
 
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