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January Sales Report Out

2,185 Views | 7 Replies | Last: 8 yr ago by jayelbee
Diggity
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AG
It was actually better than I expected. Luxury market is still off quite a bit but the mid-tier market seems to be picking up the slack. The big jump in pendings was surprising as well.



ThunderCougarFalconBird
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AG
For the unsophisticated: how long is the lag going to be? March WTI is below $28.
Diggity
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AG
some say it takes 6-9 months for the market to reflect a changing economy. O&G has been interesting because even though we've been in a declining market for much longer than that, there were a lot of people that were optimistic that we would come out of the funk this year. I don't think many of those people are left.

What I take from this is that even though people are very aware of the crappy O&G economy, there are people still willing to buy real estate. Could that change? Of course, but it's not as if anyone that has closed on a home in the last few months wasn't aware that the future of the O&G market was uncertain as best.

To me it's encouraging that we're still seeing sales. However, I have no doubt that prices will drop to reflect the uncertainty and shrinking market at the higher ends. I have been seeing that trend for the last few months.
Martin Q. Blank
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quote:
It was actually better than I expected.
Thanks! /HCAD
BobSacamano
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As always, thanks for posting the figures and especially your analysis.

I have a general question. Do you think YOY sales figures are a bit of an apples-to-crab apples comparison? For example, the number of single family units that sold is only slightly down; however, the market inventory is significantly greater than last year at this time (not to mention the overall population of Houston, housing supply, etc.) indicating that the market is more depressed than the 2% figure suggests.

I would think total sales as a function of available inventory (and perhaps a population adjustment?) would be more insightful.

Am I thinking about this correctly?
jja79
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AG
I don't know that I saw the pendings increase but our applications for new purchase money mortgages increased almost 25% in January from the previous 2 months.
Diggity
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AG
I'm not sure why you would have to adjust for population...maybe I'm missing something though.

Inventory levels are definitely up, which is reflected in the "months inventory" category. Overall though, 3.3 months is still considered to be a seller's market. The 2.5 months we had last year was one of the lowest in the history of the market, so it's not shocking that it has gone up.

Overall inventory numbers are interesting, but don't tell the whole story. They are higher than that in a lot of areas and depending on the price range. Later in the month, we'll get more specific numbers that break things down by segment.

My point was just that I expected there to be a larger drop in total sales volume, which didn't take place.
IDaggie06
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AG
I'm closing on a townhome in two weeks in the energy corridor. It's $150k so nothing fancy like the $400k ones in the heights, but still a decent amount for a townhome. It is a little nerve racking buying now but pretty confident I can rent it out for a decent profit if I have to. The asking price was $175k but gave them a take it or leave it offer and have a good realtor.

I've been "shopping" the HAR market pretty regularly for the past 14 months for homes and condos between $100-$175k. The market has been very, very hot. One property I offered over asking with cash the day it went on the market and still lost out (8 other offers). Obviously some trash properties are going to sit, but the market is still pretty hot for this "lower" price range.

No way would I buy anything over $250k now. Too much room to fall over the next 24 months in my opinion.

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