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In February 2006, about 66 percent of Houston-area residents agreed "a major increase in violent crime has occurred in Houston because of the evacuees," according to Kinder Houston Area Survey results.
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Varano was the lead author of a 2010 study that largely debunked the Katrina crime myth. He was motivated to study the issue due to the rhetoric he saw coming from Houston leaders. "There was very loaded dialogue," Varano said. "People were speaking in hyperbolic terms. They spoke of a crime wave that made Houston a more violent, dangerous place than it was in July (before the storm)."

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So it was clear that the rapid influx of population in some of the cities receiving Katrina evacuees had some affect on certain crimes, most particularly murder, followed by robbery

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"Let's be frank," Varano says. "Under the best case scenario, does anybody think you could displace this number of people with this prevalence of socioeconomic challenges into a completely distinct area. and not have any negative outcomes? Really? Are we that nave?"

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He added that if the conversation had focused on Houston's homicide rate the number of homicides that occur for every 100,000 residents there's a good chance it didn't increase at all. After all, larger cities tend to have more crimes. And Houston became much larger overnight. But because it's unclear exactly what Houston's population was following Katrina, it's impossible to know the true crime rate.

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