Lots of doom and gloom amidst the SE Texas meteorologists. We will see if it hypes out.

Where's Frankie's youtube?

But on a serious note, yeah, it looks like it's going to be a rough ride tomorrow afternoon/evening.

I hope the weather is as bad as they are predicting. I changed my far away plans to nearby plans based on the forecast.

Groceries and beer (and bleach just in case) are stocked up. Looking forward to not leaving my house all damn weekend. Hopefully I'll be productive and get some stuff done.

50-70MPH winds tomorrow.

This is today's morning update from Jeff Linder:

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***Severe Weather Outbreak likely Saturday afternoon and evening***

Warm air advection regime in place this morning with scattered showers and even a few pockets of heavy rain across the area. This will continue into the afternoon hours and then shift north and west with the core axis of the low level jet. Expect a fairly inactive overnight period. Main focus continues to be on Saturday which is covered from this point on.

Saturday:
Powerful upper level storm system currently over southern CA will move ESE today and tonight and sweep across TX on Saturday. Ingredients will come together to produce at least a couple of rounds of potentially severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Upper level system will move directly over SC TX Saturday evening taking on a slight SE to NW tilt (this indicates the trough axis is tilting negative compared to most of the time when they are positive or SW to NE). This tilt allows the cold pocket aloft associated with the storm system to overrun the warm sector ahead of the system to the SE allowing that warm sector air mass to become very unstable (cold air over warm air is unstable in the atmosphere). Additionally, very strong jet stream dynamics will come to bear across the region with 250mb high level winds splitting apart from the coastal bend through NE TX which allows general overall rising air motions. A 40kt low level jet will be in place from the coastal bend to NC TX which will be overtopped by a 100kt mid level jet streak out of the WSW. Wind profiles show strong low level veering of the wind field over the coastal bend and SE TX with 0-6km shear values of 60-70kts and 0-1km helicity values of 200-400 m^2/s^2. This all points to a lot of wind energy and certainly the potential for thunderstorm updrafts to rotate (turn with height). While the shear is there the instability is still lacking some. Forecasted CAPE values are in the 700-1200 J/kg range for Saturday afternoon which is not much surface based energy. The main reason for the lack of instability is the expected widespread cloud cover and showers/thunderstorms across the warm sector. The spreading of the cold pocket aloft could help increase these values some along with any breaks in the overcast. With that said, past historic severe weather outbreaks in November have not required significant amounts of CAPE and the forecasted energy values on Saturday fall very close in line with past analog outbreaks which produced both severe weather and tornadoes, so while I would like to see better values (say around 1500) what we currently are seeing forecasted can get the job done.

Main threats will be wind damage and isolated to possibly scattered tornadoes.

Tornado:
Tornado threat remains conditional on favorable shear and instability to align and this looks possible early Saturday afternoon along a SE to NW orientated boundary from Matagorda Bay to Austin. TTU 3km WRF has shown this setup in the last few model runs of severe storms (some supercells) developing on this boundary and lifting NE across SE TX Saturday afternoon. This boundary appears to be the maritime front separating the truly tropical air to the SW over the western Gulf from the more modified tropical air mass in place over the region currently. Low level winds will likely be backed some along this boundary and this supports an increased tornado risk on storms crossing over the boundary. Would like to see the HRRR runs late today to see if that model suggests a similar setup to add confidence. Will focus the greatest tornado threat along and SW of a line from College Station to Houston to Galveston.

Secondary tornado threat may exists with incoming squall line/MCS Saturday evening. Linear mode of activity should reduce the threat, but notches and local enhanced vorticity in the line could result in weak tornadoes along the line. This is what we commonly see in this part of TX that results in trees blown down and some roof damage. This threat will cover the entire region.

Wind Damage:
Plenty of wind energy will be in place so it will not take much to produce strong winds. While the initial development of supercells with a tornado risks is possible Saturday afternoon strong upper air forcing arrives Saturday evening and this will likely result in a squall line developing and moving out of central TX. Potential is there for bowing segments in the line to transport strong winds aloft to the surface resulting in corridors of wind damage. Leading edge winds of 50-70mph will be possible along this line of thunderstorms.

Heavy Rainfall/Flooding:
PWS surge to +2SD above normal by Saturday afternoon and with lift maximized from multiple sources there is little doubt it is going to rain. Heavy rainfall will be possible under the stronger cells and would expected rainfall rates of 1-2 inches likely possibly in a short period of time. This amount of rain can be handled. Fast storm motions should negate any serious flood threat and boundary orientation compared to the upper flow on Saturday is perpendicular not parallel. Only concern is potential for any warm sector supercells to anchor or train as these storms would certainly be producing copious rainfall rates.

Large Hail:
Cold pocket aloft moving over top of the warm sector does increase the hail threat, but the freezing level is fairly high and the sounding moist so think the large hail threat is the lowest risk. Hail is possible, but compared to the wind and tornado risk it is the lowest of the three.

Timing:
Thunderstorms may erupt as early as 1000am around Matagorda Bay with these storms increasing and spreading across SE TX. Area will be under the highest threat from about noon to midnight.

Will update again this evening as additional meso scale model data become available and attempt to refine/define the greatest tornado/severe threat area.

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And this is this afternoons update:

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Update from Jeff:

Severe Weather Outbreak remains likely Saturday afternoon and evening

Reduction in tornado threat

Increase in flash flood threat

There has been little to no change in the forecast reasoning from this morning, but incoming meso scale models and ongoing air mass trends over the coastal bend and SE TX suggest refinement of the severe weather threats on Saturday are needed.

While incoming data suggest the warm sector air mass will become unstable and shear profiles will be significant, the formation of numerous clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms across the warm sector from late morning to early afternoon suggest a decrease in the tornado risk. Large scale forcing will result in significant lift and widespread development of thunderstorms more in favor of clusters and lines versus the more concerning discrete supercell structures that tend to produce the more longer lived and stronger tornadoes. While supercells in the warm sector are still possible, the overall threat appears to be more from clusters and lines which support more of a wind damage versus tornado threat. Weaker tornadoes are also more likely in this setup especially along the leading edge of any bowing line segments. Any discrete cells that do manage to develop away from other storms will have an enhanced tornado threat and this would most likely be along and south of I-10.

Forecast models have also showed a slight slowing of the weather system and significantly more development of warm sector thunderstorms. This is increasing the threat for cell training and a more prolonged period of heavy rainfall potential. In fact the latest run of the TX Tech 3km WRF model shows nearly continuous thunderstorm development over SE TX from late morning through late evening on Saturday and supports training bands. WPC upped the QPF totals on their morning outlook and this certainly appears reasonable with widespread amounts of 1-3 inches possible and isolated totals of up to 4 inches. This increases the threat for urban flooding under cores of excessive rainfall where hourly rates may exceed 2.0 inches.

The damaging wind threat still remains as discussed earlier as there is good wind energy aloft that can and will be transported down to the surface in storm downdrafts supporting corridors of wind damage. This will be highlighted on Saturday once it becomes clear where this potential is greatest.

Residents across SE TX should be aware of the severe weather potential Saturday afternoon and evening and stay updated on current weather conditions and warning products. If a warning is issued for your area act quickly. Research shows that the ability of warning information to reach the public on the weekend decreases as "other activities" increase and many people are not as "in tune" as they are during the work week. Make it a point to at least check weather conditions a few times Saturday afternoon and evening.

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We're heading down to clear lake from the woodlands around 1pm and back home about 7pm. What are the chances this isn't a complete charlie foxtrot?

It's already looking like it will be just normal off and on storms during the day, bad stuff won't be until late night. Supposedly

Frankie says grab yo bleach

What the heck did I just watch?

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What the heck did I just watch?

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It's gonna be a lot of rain, chain lightning and very loud thunder yo.

Order your pizzas, order your Chinese food, buy cases of Coke, buy cases of Pepsi.

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Powerful upper level storm system heading for TX with widespread thunderstorms likely.

Associated lift and cold pocket with approaching upper level system is currently starting to cross the Rio Grande out of NE MX where recent Del Rio sounding has shown a significant decrease in mid level temperatures from 17C to 12C in the last 12 hours and very steep lapse rates on the order of 9C/KM. Sounding shows the capping inversion lifting and eroding and should be gone in the next few hours. Of somewhat great interest has been what has transpired overnight over SE TX with low level easterly winds backing dry dewpoints into the area from the east. Dewpoints have fallen into the low 50's at Beaumont versus the mid 60's at Victoria. SPC 850mb moisture analysis also shows a dry pocket from the ENE over SE TX and this was shown a couple of days ago by the GFS model. The area between the "moist" and "dry" surface air appears to be along a line from offshore of Galveston to near Port O Connor to Austin. Increasing large scale ascent from the approaching upper storm system is resulting in development of thunderstorms along this boundary, but thus far they have not gone severe. Expect this boundary to lift northeastward this morning allowing better moisture to surge into the area. Backed low level winds near this feature could enhance the tornado threat, but with such marginal instability in place currently it is likely to keep the tornado threat at least through early afternoon low.

Shear values and instability really increase this afternoon as powerful 100kt mid level jet streak carves across S TX into the coastal bend overtopping a 40kt low level jet. 0-6km shear values increase to nearly 50-60kts supporting low level storm rotation. Instability peaks in the 1000-2000 J/kg range over the coastal bend and then gradually weakens northward over SE TX. With lift at this point maximized over the warm sector numerous severe thunderstorms are likely with some producing tornadoes. Will focus the highest threat bounded by a line from Columbus to Wharton to Angleton and southwest where instability will be greatest. Meso models show the initial line of storms to move SW to NE across the region by mid afternoon and then a gradual slowing and even stalling of this line north of I-10 for a period of time this evening as the area awaits the actual push from the incoming upper level system. This greatly increases the flash flood threat for the evening hours as a period of cell training is looking fairly likely over some portion of SE TX from about 300pm until 900pm. A very close look at the TX TECH 3km WRF model even suggests a meso scale outflow boundary may be generated across our central counties (I-10) by late afternoon with numerous storms feeding northward into a slow moving or stationary line.this has some support from the HRRR (Rapid Refresh model).

Secondary episode of adverse weather will move across the region between 600pm and 200amin fact there may not really be a break. The second event will be more of a squall line that develops along I-35 and spreads eastward across SE TX this evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat with this line where bowing segments help transport wind energy aloft down to the surface. Best threat for wind damage appears to focus in the defined warm sector along and southwest of a line from College Station to Katy to Galveston. Corridors of wind damage will be possible with winds up to 60-70mph.

Flash flood threat continues to increase with more expected development over a longer duration. Main concern is cell training along any boundaries that will be developed by storm generated cold pools. Fairly concerned on the meso scale models attempting to show meso scale outflow boundary development for about a 6 hour period this afternoon/evening which anchors storms across our central and northern counties. Given the expected increase in moisture today across the area, storms will be capable of a quick 1-2 inches and where this extends over a couple of hours rapid flash flooding may result. Will just have to watch radar trends and see when/if storms begin to slow and train as that is where the flooding risk will be maximized. Both of the TX TECH and HRRR models give support for this scenario, but that does not mean they will be correct nor have the correct location.

The next 6 hours will likely begin to transition into watch and warning mode with defined threats becoming realized across the region.

I'm on a beach in playa balling out. Hopefully Houston is still there when I get home

Another update from Jeff. Sounding like a shift from severe storms to pounding rains.

Update from Jeff:


Radars out of Houston, Corpus Christi, and Austin show significant increase in thunderstorm
development over the last 2 hours from north of Corpus Christi to Austin in
region of enhanced lift in broad warm air advection regime southwest of
northeast moving maritime warm front.



Recent storms north of Corpus Christi have begun to show some modest low level rotation, yet to this point activity has remained below
severe criteria. Expect a rapid increase in coverage over thunderstorms over SE
TX over the next few hours.



Threat matrix is starting to shift slightly away from severe weather and more toward heavy rainfall with widespread low cloud cover in place
preventing surface heating and keeping instability low. With that said visible
satellite images show thinning and clearing over cloud cover from roughly
College Station to Wharton and this may allow instability to increase in this
corridor as SC TX activity approaches in the next 2-3 hours. Heavy rainfall
factor is clearly noted with training convection along I-35 corridor currently
and this threat will be watched very closely this afternoon especially along and
north of the I-10 corridor.



A slightly more enhanced severe risk will likely begin to take place along the Rio Grande over the next 6 hours as strong forcing moves into an
increasingly unstable air mass over that area. The development of an eastward
moving squall line/MCS appears likely with a damaging wind threat on its leading
edge which will sweep across SC, coastal bend, and parts of SE TX overnight.

So.... they oversold it

We just got about a 1/16th inch of rain (west Houston). Guess it's over!

Right now it looks like the bad storms are passing north of us...BCS might get slammed though

Damn FWA, ton of ppl going and coming from there that I know.....I'm headed down Tuesday morning

BCS wasn't too bad.

Had worse afternoon storms in the tine.

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Damn FWA, ton of ppl going and coming from there that I know.....I'm headed down Tuesday morning

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This is a wedding with lsu people. Parlaying this straight to CS to start tailgating on Tuesday.

This storm hasn't been ****

I figured nothing would happen when the hype started days ago.

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I figured nothing would happen when the hype started days ago.

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Called it in original post. They always hype this stuff in advance.

It's pouring in nw Houston.

It's rained so much in Cypress the concrete is wet and turned my wipers on for a few seconds. Touch and go around here boys

I just saw a leaf blow across the yard. I think it's just arriving late.

Still pouring at my house.

Been raining its ass off for awhile in Pearland.

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It's rained so much in Cypress the concrete is wet and turned my wipers on for a few seconds. Touch and go around here boys

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Same here in the Heights.

Starting to hear a lot of booms out in cyp!

Add another busted forecast for the weatherman.