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While the latest 25 percent slide in oil prices to below $90 a barrel is so far modest compared with the 1980s slump that took crude from $35 to below $10, many observers see similarities in a global market that is on the brink of a pivotal turn from an era of scarcity to one of abundance.

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/14/us-saudi-oil-policy-analysis-idUSKCN0I229320141014

Everything goes in cycles...if we're at the end of the early 21st century oil shortage/boom, what are the impacts for local real estate? Time for me to sell me house and realize gains from the recent run-up?

Yes panicking and selling your home is definitely the right course of action.

I am praying for falling home prices. I don't plan to sell anytime soon, so higher home prices just mean higher taxes for me.

Burn it down for the insurance money. Way safer bet than panic selling.

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I am praying for falling home prices. I don't plan to sell anytime soon, so higher home prices just mean higher taxes for me.

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That's a great strategy for what is most likely the most valuable asset you own!

Wouldn't mind a buying opportunity.

Leasing your house and car ftw.

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Leasing your house and car ftw.

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That is only if you live in Dallas

Prepare for the blood bath!

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I am praying for falling home prices. I don't plan to sell anytime soon, so higher home prices just mean higher taxes for me.

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Don't worry, the market could absolutely implode but HCAD would still find a way to go in dry.

Hcad doesn't tax you

Is it weird that I almost want the housing market to crash?

I would sell my house for what I bought it for in 2011 and upgrade immediately.

My house is probably up $100k in value, but that $550k upgrade house is now $850k.

I work in the construction sales industry. Let me give you a word of advice HOUSTON IS A SELLERS MARKET! If you want to sell your house the average time on the market, per the Houston Business Journal, is 2 weeks MAX. Now, the flip side of that is you might want to put a contingent on the sale that if you can't find a house to buy then the deal is off. Gas prices have ZERO effect on the housing industry. The housing market in our city is driven mainly by one thing, demand. There is only a back log of 3 month supply of new homes on the market. Therefore, if you have a house in an established, no new houses being put up around you, and someone wants to buy that house, they have to buy your house.
This isn't 1980 man. Actually, if you look at the trade deficit/surplus this will be the first year that the U.S, in a very long time, will be at a trade surplus due to our exportation of natural gas to China and other countries. Fracking has helped with this as well.
So no man, do not in any way determine whether to sell your house or not by the price per barrel of oil. U.S., despite Obama (well Texas at least) is trying to become more dependent on natural gas, and not crude oil.
Now, I will say this, if you see the sub-prime go to zero and no down payment hold on to your hats! That is when the writing is on the wall and banks are lending to anyone with a heartbeat! This is when you will see notes getting called and builders such as David Powers, Wilshire Homes, and the like dry up like a raising because they pulled an Enron.

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I work in the construction sales industry. Let me give you a word of advice HOUSTON IS A SELLERS MARKET!

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Hcad doesn't tax you

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Yes, but they appraise you who dictates how much you are taxed. HTH

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I work in the construction sales industry. Let me give you a word of advice HOUSTON IS A SELLERS MARKET! If you want to sell your house the average time on the market, per the Houston Business Journal, is 2 weeks MAX. Now, the flip side of that is you might want to put a contingent on the sale that if you can't find a house to buy then the deal is off. Gas prices have ZERO effect on the housing industry. The housing market in our city is driven mainly by one thing, demand. There is only a back log of 3 month supply of new homes on the market. Therefore, if you have a house in an established, no new houses being put up around you, and someone wants to buy that house, they have to buy your house.
This isn't 1980 man. Actually, if you look at the trade deficit/surplus this will be the first year that the U.S, in a very long time, will be at a trade surplus due to our exportation of natural gas to China and other countries. Fracking has helped with this as well.
So no man, do not in any way determine whether to sell your house or not by the price per barrel of oil. U.S., despite Obama (well Texas at least) is trying to become more dependent on natural gas, and not crude oil.
Now, I will say this, if you see the sub-prime go to zero and no down payment hold on to your hats! That is when the writing is on the wall and banks are lending to anyone with a heartbeat! This is when you will see notes getting called and builders such as David Powers, Wilshire Homes, and the like dry up like a raising because they pulled an Enron.

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Irrational Exuberance. I like it. Man.

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I work in the construction sales industry. Let me give you a word of advice HOUSTON IS A SELLERS MARKET! If you want to sell your house the average time on the market, per the Houston Business Journal, is 2 weeks MAX. Now, the flip side of that is you might want to put a contingent on the sale that if you can't find a house to buy then the deal is off. Gas prices have ZERO effect on the housing industry. The housing market in our city is driven mainly by one thing, demand. There is only a back log of 3 month supply of new homes on the market. Therefore, if you have a house in an established, no new houses being put up around you, and someone wants to buy that house, they have to buy your house.
This isn't 1980 man. Actually, if you look at the trade deficit/surplus this will be the first year that the U.S, in a very long time, will be at a trade surplus due to our exportation of natural gas to China and other countries. Fracking has helped with this as well.
So no man, do not in any way determine whether to sell your house or not by the price per barrel of oil. U.S., despite Obama (well Texas at least) is trying to become more dependent on natural gas, and not crude oil.
Now, I will say this, if you see the sub-prime go to zero and no down payment hold on to your hats! That is when the writing is on the wall and banks are lending to anyone with a heartbeat! This is when you will see notes getting called and builders such as David Powers, Wilshire Homes, and the like dry up like a raising because they pulled an Enron.

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why am I picturing this guy?

Demand drives markets???? No way!

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I work in the construction sales industry. Let me give you a word of advice HOUSTON IS A SELLERS MARKET! If you want to sell your house the average time on the market, per the Houston Business Journal, is 2 weeks MAX. Now, the flip side of that is you might want to put a contingent on the sale that if you can't find a house to buy then the deal is off. Gas prices have ZERO effect on the housing industry. The housing market in our city is driven mainly by one thing, demand. There is only a back log of 3 month supply of new homes on the market. Therefore, if you have a house in an established, no new houses being put up around you, and someone wants to buy that house, they have to buy your house.
This isn't 1980 man. Actually, if you look at the trade deficit/surplus this will be the first year that the U.S, in a very long time, will be at a trade surplus due to our exportation of natural gas to China and other countries. Fracking has helped with this as well.
So no man, do not in any way determine whether to sell your house or not by the price per barrel of oil. U.S., despite Obama (well Texas at least) is trying to become more dependent on natural gas, and not crude oil.
Now, I will say this, if you see the sub-prime go to zero and no down payment hold on to your hats! That is when the writing is on the wall and banks are lending to anyone with a heartbeat! This is when you will see notes getting called and builders such as David Powers, Wilshire Homes, and the like dry up like a raising because they pulled an Enron.

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why am I picturing this guy?

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I was really thinking this, but I was trying to be nice

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I work in the construction sales industry. Let me give you a word of advice HOUSTON IS A SELLERS MARKET! If you want to sell your house the average time on the market, per the Houston Business Journal, is 2 weeks MAX. Now, the flip side of that is you might want to put a contingent on the sale that if you can't find a house to buy then the deal is off. Gas prices have ZERO effect on the housing industry. The housing market in our city is driven mainly by one thing, demand. There is only a back log of 3 month supply of new homes on the market. Therefore, if you have a house in an established, no new houses being put up around you, and someone wants to buy that house, they have to buy your house.
This isn't 1980 man. Actually, if you look at the trade deficit/surplus this will be the first year that the U.S, in a very long time, will be at a trade surplus due to our exportation of natural gas to China and other countries. Fracking has helped with this as well.
So no man, do not in any way determine whether to sell your house or not by the price per barrel of oil. U.S., despite Obama (well Texas at least) is trying to become more dependent on natural gas, and not crude oil.
Now, I will say this, if you see the sub-prime go to zero and no down payment hold on to your hats! That is when the writing is on the wall and banks are lending to anyone with a heartbeat! This is when you will see notes getting called and builders such as David Powers, Wilshire Homes, and the like dry up like a raising because they pulled an Enron.

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First of all.... We haven't exported a single MMBTU to China or anywhere else in the world.... yet. That won't begin until late 2015 or likely 2016.

However, your point about our production mix and the cost of production relative to the rest of the world is true.

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Let me give you a word of advice HOUSTON IS A SELLERS MARKET!

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Mind blown.

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Hcad doesn't tax you

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I think you missed the point - as pointed out above they assess the perceived market value on your home which ultimately gets used as your tax basis.

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I work in the construction sales industry. Let me give you a word of advice HOUSTON IS A SELLERS MARKET! If you want to sell your house the average time on the market, per the Houston Business Journal, is 2 weeks MAX. Now, the flip side of that is you might want to put a contingent on the sale that if you can't find a house to buy then the deal is off. Gas prices have ZERO effect on the housing industry. The housing market in our city is driven mainly by one thing, demand. There is only a back log of 3 month supply of new homes on the market. Therefore, if you have a house in an established, no new houses being put up around you, and someone wants to buy that house, they have to buy your house.
This isn't 1980 man. Actually, if you look at the trade deficit/surplus this will be the first year that the U.S, in a very long time, will be at a trade surplus due to our exportation of natural gas to China and other countries. Fracking has helped with this as well.
So no man, do not in any way determine whether to sell your house or not by the price per barrel of oil. U.S., despite Obama (well Texas at least) is trying to become more dependent on natural gas, and not crude oil.
Now, I will say this, if you see the sub-prime go to zero and no down payment hold on to your hats! That is when the writing is on the wall and banks are lending to anyone with a heartbeat! This is when you will see notes getting called and builders such as David Powers, Wilshire Homes, and the like dry up like a raising because they pulled an Enron.

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First of all.... We haven't exported a single MMBTU to China or anywhere else in the world.... yet. That won't begin until late 2015 or likely 2016.

However, your point about our production mix and the cost of production relative to the rest of the world is true.

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PXD isn't exporting?

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I work in the construction sales industry. Let me give you a word of advice HOUSTON IS A SELLERS MARKET! If you want to sell your house the average time on the market, per the Houston Business Journal, is 2 weeks MAX. Now, the flip side of that is you might want to put a contingent on the sale that if you can't find a house to buy then the deal is off. Gas prices have ZERO effect on the housing industry. The housing market in our city is driven mainly by one thing, demand. There is only a back log of 3 month supply of new homes on the market. Therefore, if you have a house in an established, no new houses being put up around you, and someone wants to buy that house, they have to buy your house.
This isn't 1980 man. Actually, if you look at the trade deficit/surplus this will be the first year that the U.S, in a very long time, will be at a trade surplus due to our exportation of natural gas to China and other countries. Fracking has helped with this as well.
So no man, do not in any way determine whether to sell your house or not by the price per barrel of oil. U.S., despite Obama (well Texas at least) is trying to become more dependent on natural gas, and not crude oil.
Now, I will say this, if you see the sub-prime go to zero and no down payment hold on to your hats! That is when the writing is on the wall and banks are lending to anyone with a heartbeat! This is when you will see notes getting called and builders such as David Powers, Wilshire Homes, and the like dry up like a raising because they pulled an Enron.

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Hmm...and what do you think that DEMAND is driven by?? Last time I checked the job creation in this state is heavily correlated to the amount of energy we are producing in house. Let the price of gas fall to extemely low levels and get back to me on how that affects the market here in Texas. While we do have a better energy mix in the state and are better hedged against a 1980's style collapse, one thing that you are missing is that natural gas is severely oversupplied right now. Exports (on a large scale) will not start to ramp up until late 2015 at the earliest, and while fracking has become the popular means to extract dino juice, outside of a few basins no producer in their right mind is drilling for natural gas only - its merely a byproduct that they have to deal with to get the liquids. If the price of oil continues to slide, the small scale guys will slowly be squeezed out of the market and will eventually lead to a pullback in the state economy.

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I work in the construction sales industry. Let me give you a word of advice HOUSTON IS A SELLERS MARKET! If you want to sell your house the average time on the market, per the Houston Business Journal, is 2 weeks MAX. Now, the flip side of that is you might want to put a contingent on the sale that if you can't find a house to buy then the deal is off. Gas prices have ZERO effect on the housing industry. The housing market in our city is driven mainly by one thing, demand. There is only a back log of 3 month supply of new homes on the market. Therefore, if you have a house in an established, no new houses being put up around you, and someone wants to buy that house, they have to buy your house.
This isn't 1980 man. Actually, if you look at the trade deficit/surplus this will be the first year that the U.S, in a very long time, will be at a trade surplus due to our exportation of natural gas to China and other countries. Fracking has helped with this as well.
So no man, do not in any way determine whether to sell your house or not by the price per barrel of oil. U.S., despite Obama (well Texas at least) is trying to become more dependent on natural gas, and not crude oil.
Now, I will say this, if you see the sub-prime go to zero and no down payment hold on to your hats! That is when the writing is on the wall and banks are lending to anyone with a heartbeat! This is when you will see notes getting called and builders such as David Powers, Wilshire Homes, and the like dry up like a raising because they pulled an Enron.

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First of all.... We haven't exported a single MMBTU to China or anywhere else in the world.... yet. That won't begin until late 2015 or likely 2016.

However, your point about our production mix and the cost of production relative to the rest of the world is true.

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PXD isn't exporting?

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Sorry, good point of clarification.... Mexico and Canada are receiving US gas, just no LNG.

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I work in the construction sales industry. Let me give you a word of advice HOUSTON IS A SELLERS MARKET! If you want to sell your house the average time on the market, per the Houston Business Journal, is 2 weeks MAX. Now, the flip side of that is you might want to put a contingent on the sale that if you can't find a house to buy then the deal is off. Gas prices have ZERO effect on the housing industry. The housing market in our city is driven mainly by one thing, demand. There is only a back log of 3 month supply of new homes on the market. Therefore, if you have a house in an established, no new houses being put up around you, and someone wants to buy that house, they have to buy your house.
This isn't 1980 man. Actually, if you look at the trade deficit/surplus this will be the first year that the U.S, in a very long time, will be at a trade surplus due to our exportation of natural gas to China and other countries. Fracking has helped with this as well.
So no man, do not in any way determine whether to sell your house or not by the price per barrel of oil. U.S., despite Obama (well Texas at least) is trying to become more dependent on natural gas, and not crude oil.
Now, I will say this, if you see the sub-prime go to zero and no down payment hold on to your hats! That is when the writing is on the wall and banks are lending to anyone with a heartbeat! This is when you will see notes getting called and builders such as David Powers, Wilshire Homes, and the like dry up like a raising because they pulled an Enron.

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Everyone has seemed to cover this so far, but what exactly do you believe is the cause of the boom in the housing industry that leads to this SELLER'S MARKET? Hint: it has to do with the industry that lead the way in jobs here in Houston- energy. The energy industry starts to take a downturn, and there's a dang good chance it has an affect on new hires and families moving to Houston

The Houston job market is diversified with a lot of growth from healthcare and manafacturing, but this article from last year highlights the importance O & has on demand.

http://impactnews.com/houston-metro/tomball-magnolia/houston-leads-in-job-creation/

Even with a diversified economy, it still represent more than half of the city's wealth. It wont cripple the local economy, but it sure as hell will have huge ripple effects.

Oh great, another real estate circle jerk thread.

How much of the manufacturing in H-Town is tied to O&G? I don't know, but would guess a very large percentage of it is.

The medical profession "should" be okay because fat greasy oilmen aren't getting healthy anytime soon, but O-care hasn't seen its full impact yet either.

Lastly, I hope katyag99 put some money aside for a rainy day, because there are clouds on the horizon.

The clouds are already here and it's starting to rain.

Keep your nut low. Don't be leveraged to the hilt. Have some cash in the bank. **** is about to get real. HTH.

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The Houston job market is diversified with a lot of growth from healthcare and manafacturing, but this article from last year highlights the importance O & has on demand.

http://impactnews.com/houston-metro/tomball-magnolia/houston-leads-in-job-creation/

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Except for healthcare, I can't think of a single industry in Houston that isn't significantly invested in O&G

Over half of Houston's banking, finc/accounting, manufacturing, real estate, construction, recruiting/HR and legal work is tied directly to vigor and growth of the energy industry.

Exxon Mobil and Chevron Phillips are both building approx. $5 billion expansions (in edition to EM's new corporate campus in Spring) to their plants to process fracked natural gas and the other stuff that comes up with it. They definitely don' t have all of their eggs in one basket.