This years season is right around the corner and we already got our first invest off the shores of NC. Do we want to have a little OB challenge on:

1. Total number of named storms
2. Total number of named storms to landfall US
3. Total number of named storms to landfall TX

Official Tally: 14/5/0
Alex - fish spinner
Bonnie - SC
Colin - FL
Danielle - Mexico
Earl - Belize
Fiona - fish spinner
Gaston - fish spinner
Hermine - FL
Ian - fish spinner
Julia - FL
Karl - fish
Lisa - fish
Matthew - SC
Nicole - fish

Here's mine. 16/7/2

13/5/2

I'll go with a slow season...

10/3/0

8/3/0

11/4/1

15 / 5 / 0
I live in Charleston, so the number to make landfall in SC: 0

Weather Channel Predication: Armageddon with 2012 the movie style storms

9 / 2 / 0

13/4/0

16 / 3 / 1

And one east coast sideswipe before turning out to sea that turns into media Armageddon!

8/3/1

9/1/0

14
6
2

Atlantic/Gulf
7 storms
4 become hurricanes
1 makes landfall

if el nino pattern holds there is more wind shear aloft so the latent heat of storms is more spread out making them less intense and dissipate quicker.

17/5/0

El Nino!

It's been great up here in Dallas. It's almost June and still in the 80s. Haven't had to water my lawn yet and the grass is growing like crazy. All the lakes are full to ensure a couple of years worth of good fishing and hunting. The spring storms have created havoc in a couple of places but mine has been spared.

I know it's been a bad year in other parts of Texas but it does wonders up here north of I-10.

8/3/2


(Edited on 25 May after clarification that it was named storms not hurricanes)
(Edited again on 26 May after clarification on Alex)

quote:

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if el nino pattern holds

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No chance - we're already pretty much back to 'neutral' and likely headed right into La Nia conditions.

11/4/0

25
6
4

Invest 91L today:

quote:

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000
ABNT20 KNHC 252338
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
740 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Cloudiness and showers over the western Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas are associated with a newly formed area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form on Friday or Saturday. The low is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward and approach the southeastern United States over the weekend. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this disturbance will be issued by 9 AM EDT on Thursday. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

&& High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS Header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO Header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Before we get too deep, let's define the parameters. Do we want to use named storms (as listed in the OP) or only named hurricanes?

As an offshore oil and gas employee... I wouldn't mind if a few storms stirred up the Gulf and created some more work.

As a person who's been through a few tropicals and one cane, I wouldn't wish that damage on anyone. Especially the already soggy parts of Texas.

quote:

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Before we get too deep, let's define the parameters. Do we want to use named storms (as listed in the OP) or only named hurricanes?

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Storms.

Are we counting Alex back in Jan?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Alex_(2016)

quote:

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Are we counting Alex back in Jan?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Alex_(2016)

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No. Alex was just hungover from 2015. This contest runs 1 June to 31 December.

You can't dismiss Alex, then the naming convention will be all screwy

quote:

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Are we counting Alex back in Jan?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Alex_(2016)

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Uh, what about those of us that included Alex in our guesses?

Ok,
Alex is in. The official score to date is 1/0/0

14/5/2

Nino remnants may keep things off Texas early, but signs are pointing to a Nina pattern by August. We could get 1-2.

12
4
0

Stupid Invest 91L screwing up my holiday plans!

14 - 5 - 0

15/6/3