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I don't understand how this works. Okay, I get that more artists can now release their music via social media or whatever, but still - won't the really good ones still get picked up by the big labels and paid millions for recording rights, etc.?
That's not remotely close to how labels pay their artists.
Record labels advance a set dollar amount to artists to record their album, often with many restrictions in place (what studio they can record at, which producers they can work with, etc). It is then up to the artists to deliver a mixed and mastered album, again with label oversight, at or under the amount of the advance. This usually means the artists not only have to finance the recording expenses, but their own living expenses with this money.
Once the album is delivered, the label spends money on promotion, touring, and manufacturing costs for the album.
Contacts start to vary at this point.
Artists are paid a percentage of the net profits of the album. For example, Band A gets 25% of each record's profit. If the labels sells 10,000 cd's and nets a profit of $30,000 after manufacturing and promotion costs, then Band A gets $7500 to split amongst the band members. That is, after they pay their management, agent and whoever else is on their payroll.
Oh, did I say $7500? I meant the band gets paid nothing!
They haven't recouped the advance the record label gave them in the beginning, so they owe their entire cut to the label until that's paid off.
Let's say Band A gets an advance of $200,000. With their 25% cut of each record's net profit of $3 per, Band A wouldn't even be in the black until after they've sold over a quarter million records.
It's easy to understand why so many artists choose to go independent, though if you cut off their revenue stream by just listening to YouTube or even internet radio, then it makes things just that much tougher for them to turn a profit.
It's not just up and coming bands getting hit either. Plenty of big names have been touring more and more and releasing less new material. That's just how the business model has changed in the last 10-15 years.