<
>

Take 2: Mississippi State or Texas A&M more likely to finish in top 25?

Neither Mississippi State nor Texas A&M made the Way-Too-Early Top 25 last month, though the Bulldogs are coming off a strong season after finishing 10-3 and No. 11 in the final Associated Press poll (the College Football Playoff rankings, where the Bulldogs finished seventh, don’t release a post-bowl season ranking). Texas A&M was in the top 10 early last season before a three-game losing streak sent it crashing to earth, but potential exists in Aggieland. Both teams are the subject of today’s Take 2: Which team is more likely to finish in the top 25 next season?

Alex Scarborough: We’re going to do this again, are we?

Fine. If you want to continue to sleep on Mississippi State, do so at your own peril.

You should know, though, that this is the same mistake most of you made last year.

If you read anything I wrote about the Bulldogs during this past offseason, then you know I warned you. I told you the schedule was manageable. I told you the defense would be good. I told you Dak Prescott could be something special. I all but shouted from the rooftops that this was a team not to be trifled with.

I told you then and I’m telling you again: Don’t count out Mississippi State.

Because the team that went 10-3 and finished No. 11 in the AP Poll isn’t all that different from the one that will open spring camp on March 18. Dan Mullen is still its head coach. Prescott is still its quarterback. And thanks to the deep rotation it employed last season, the defense is still in good shape despite losing seven starters. There was a change at coordinator, which usually elicits raised eyebrows, but even that should be a smooth transition since Manny Diaz is a familiar face.

Sure, there are concerns. The offensive line needs to be restructured, new leaders must emerge on defense, and there is the whole concept of living up to last year’s success.

But with so much already going for it, why can’t Mississippi State break into the top 25 sooner than later? Look at the first three weeks: a win against Southern Miss in the opener is all but certain, getting LSU at home helps tilt the odds in the Bulldogs’ favor, and Northwestern State is a cupcake by any measure. So will anyone be surprised if Auburn-Mississippi State on Sept. 26 is a matchup of two highly ranked teams? The two played with a lot on the line last season.

Now the gauntlet known as the SEC West could throw that whole scenario for a loop, of course. There is not a pushover in the division. But when the only established starters at quarterback are Prescott and Brandon Allen of Arkansas, you have to wonder how things will shake out. And if you’re Mississippi State and you have the best quarterback on the board, you have to like your chances.

Sam Khan Jr.: I’d rather not count out Mississippi State because of how highly I think of Prescott, and the Bulldogs are certainly poised to do well. It’s difficult to ignore, however, what Texas A&M did this offseason, going over to Baton Rouge to yank John Chavis away from LSU as its new defensive coordinator.

What has been the most glaring weakness of the Kevin Sumlin era at Texas A&M? Defense. The past two seasons, the Aggies ranked last in the SEC in rushing defense and total yards allowed per game.

They don’t call Chavis "The Chief" for nothing. Since 2009 (the year he arrived at LSU) only three FBS teams allowed fewer yards per game than the Tigers (307.8). Those three were Alabama, Florida, and Michigan State. That is impressive defensive company.

The Aggies recruited heavily on the defensive side of the ball in the past three classes, and the 2014 class in particular was a boon for the defense, yielding future star defensive end Myles Garrett, promising safety prospect Armani Watts, and talented young linebackers Otaro Alaka and Josh Walker. A year of experience for those two, combined with seasoned veterans at other positions gives the Aggies a chance to make significant steps forward on defense in Chavis’ first season. He said it himself last week -- there is SEC talent here. The Aggies need more, but depth is slowly improving.

Offensively the Aggies should be fine. Kyle Allen looks like one of the league’s best young quarterbacks, showing tremendous poise and leadership in guiding the Aggies to a tough road win at Auburn last season and a win against West Virginia in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl. There is plenty of talent around him, including receivers Speedy Noil and Josh Reynolds, and running back Tra Carson. The offensive line could take a step forward this season, too, with new position coach and running game coordinator Dave Christensen.

Bottom line -- the Aggies have consistently proven they’re an elite offense under Sumlin’s watch. They might not instantly be elite on defense under Chavis, but there should be enough improvement over the course of the season to push the Aggies up the SEC ladder and into the top 25 by season’s end.